Senior Elections Forecasting Specialist

Obsidian in Toronto is seeking a seasoned political forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff. You will make live judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds and explain the causal mechanisms behind outcomes.

Backgrounds from top national polling and election-forecasting organizations or risk desks are valued; direct forecasting performance matters most in determining qualifications for this role.